[IN BRIEF] South Koreans turn up in record numbers as Presidential Election Looms

KUALA LUMPUR, 30 May 2025 - South Korea is set for their presidential election on 3 June 2025, coming at a time of relative political instability, following the impeachment and removal of President Yoon Suk Yeol whom declared a short-lived martial law back in early December 2024. This snap election is line with the mandate of the constitution to hold it within 60 days of presidential vacancy, following the Constitutional Court’s unanimous decision on April 4, 2025, to uphold Yoon’s impeachment.

Protesters gather holding banners demanding the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, December 14, 2024. © AP Photo/Lee Jin-man

How did we get here? This snap election was triggered by Yoon's controversial and rather unprecedented martial law declaration which he insisted it was a justifiable response to "anti-state forces", quoting North Korean threats. Korea's National Assembly in turn voted to impeach him on 14 December, with 204 to 85 out of 300 lawmakers in support. Such votes in favor reflects the widespread disapproval, not just publicly but politically. Following this, the Constitutional Court’s ruling on 4 April 2025 formalized Yoon's removal and hence created a temporary power vacuum which Han Duck-soo - a South Korean diplomat, economist, and politician filled in temporarily as Acting President. The election, set for 3 June 2025 will be South Korea's 9th presidential election since democratization and is set to be one of the most interesting ones considering developments prior and global uncertainty.

Some issues worth highlighting in the build up towards this election are

• Domestic Political Division: Yoon's actions deepened societal rifts as there were groups that protested and those whom counter-protest as they aligned with Yoon's underlying reasoning. Such divisions highlight polarization within the community

• Balancing the ship in uncertain times: How will the next leader balance South Korea's ever strong relations with Washington, it's strongest and most strategic security ally with their relations with Beijing, whom remain South Korea's largest trading partner?

• The North Korean Threat: Relations with their Korean neighbors were never great but in recent years, tensions have heightened with both sides trading balloons and propaganda drones.

• Domestic Issues: Declining birth rate (0.75, lowest globally) and growing social inequality 

Who is in the run?

It is worth noting that for the first time in 18 years, there is no woman running for president. This election features six candidates, though only two are expected to have significant chances of winning: Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP). 

South Korea uses a single-round plurality voting system, meaning the candidate with the most votes wins and is entitled to serve one five-year term.

Lee Jae-myung (C), leader of South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party, leaves the Seoul Central District Court in Seoul, South Korea, 26 September 2023, after a court hearing to review the legality of his detention over corruption charges. EFE-EPA/YONHAP SOUTH KOREA OUT

Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party)

• A former factory worker turned human rights lawyer, Lee is celebrated as a “working-class hero.” Narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election and played a key role in opposing Yoon’s martial law, rallying protesters and lawmakers to block the order.

• Some analysts express skepticism about the consistency of Lee’s foreign policy, particularly his conciliatory approach toward China and North Korea, which could strain relations with Japan and the U.S.

Kim Moon-soo (L), the presidential candidate for South Korea's conservative People Power Party, casts his ballot with his daughter (R) at a polling station during early voting for the presidential election in Incheon on May 29, 2025. — AFP pic

Kim Moon-soo (People Power Party)

• A former labor activist who shifted to hardline conservatism, Kim served as labor minister under Yoon and governor of Gyeonggi Province (2006–2014). He secured the People Power Party (PPP)'s nomination despite internal party turmoil on May 3, 2025, with 56.5% of the primary vote beating his conservative rival, Han Dong-hun.

• Kim trails Lee by double-digit margins in polls, and internal PPP divisions, including a brief cancellation of his nomination, have somewhat hampered his campaign 

How are things shaping up? 

Reports suggest Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party to be leading in polls with initial projections suggesting a victory, though the gap is said to be getting narrower as 3 June approaches. Kim Moon-soo trails behind, with analyst noting conservative vote fragmentation a concern in this election.

Though some analysts believe the campaigning has strong elements of "personal attacks and petty disputes", thus overshadowing substantive policy discussions - South Koreans are expected to turn up in numbers. In fact, official data suggests that early voting (which started on 29 May) are currently hitting record numbers. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reports that as of midday on Friday (30 May), numbers represents more than a quarter of South Korea’s 44.3 million eligible voters with first day early voters turnout reaching 19.6% of total eligible voters, highest in history.

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Analyst: Edwin Oh Chun Kit